{"id":30883,"date":"2025-05-19T02:56:01","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T02:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/northmoregordon.com\/?p=30883"},"modified":"2025-06-13T02:29:26","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T02:29:26","slug":"veec-market-update-price-declines-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/northmoregordon.com\/articles\/veec-market-update-price-declines-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"VEEC Market Update \u2013 Price Declines May 2025\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Insight from Northmore Gordon<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At <strong>Northmore Gordon<\/strong>, we continue to monitor the dynamic Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate (VEEC) market.&nbsp; Two weeks ago, the Government passed legislation to extend the VEU to 2045, <strong>and last Friday 16<\/strong><strong><sup>th<\/sup><\/strong><strong> May, they announced the 2026 and 2027 targets.<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Latest Price Movements<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of <strong>19 May 2025<\/strong>, VEEC spot prices have declined to approximately <strong>$85.00 per certificate<\/strong>, marking a substantial correction from highs of over <strong>$110<\/strong> in late 2024.&nbsp; This represents a ~20% drop in recent months, underscoring a shift in market sentiment and fundamentals.&nbsp; The announced targets resulted in a sudden drop from $91.00 to $85.00 where prices have stabilised for the moment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/northmoregordon.com\/certificate-prices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The latest VEEC price can be found on Northmore Gordon website.&nbsp; Filter on VEECs.<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A Look Back: VEEC Price History<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VEECs were trading at around <strong>$30<\/strong> back in <strong>2020<\/strong>, steadily climbing to over <strong>$110<\/strong> by late 2024. This increase was driven by:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Regulatory tightening<\/strong> that limited certificate creation.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Increased compliance demand<\/strong> from energy retailers.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Market uncertainty<\/strong> that spurred speculative buying.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Declining supply <\/strong>from lighting and market saturation in certain activities&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What\u2019s Driving the May 2025 Price Drop?<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Several key developments have contributed to the recent decline in prices:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Regulatory Certainty<\/strong>: &nbsp;<br>On 16<sup>th<\/sup> May 2025 Victorian Government has announced VEEC targets for 2026 (4.4 million) and 2027 (4.6 M), this is lower than the proposed revised interim VEEC targets for 2026 (5 M) and 2027 (6 M) and substantially lower than the 2025 target of 7.3 million.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Removal of Vintage Requirements:<\/strong>&nbsp;<br>Legislation removed the requirement for certificates prior to 31<sup>st<\/sup> January to be used for surrender for the prior year\u2019s obligation.&nbsp; This provides more supply.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Extended Surrender Deadline<\/strong>:&nbsp;<br>The VEEC surrender deadline has been extended to 30 June 2025, giving liable entities more time to meet their obligations, reducing short-term pressure.&nbsp; This may well happen again in 2026&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Increased Supply:<\/strong>&nbsp;<br>Space heating and cooling, as well as commercial heatpump installation activities have steadily increasing creation rates.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Improved Supply Outlook<\/strong>:&nbsp;<br>With greater clarity and easing of speculative activity, supply has improved, leading to more stable pricing.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What This Means for Business<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those involved in <strong>energy efficiency projects<\/strong> or <strong>VEEC-generating activities<\/strong>, these market shifts present both <strong>challenges and opportunities<\/strong>. Staying informed and strategically timing your projects can help optimise returns and ensure compliance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At <strong>Northmore Gordon<\/strong>, we help clients navigate the certificate markets with confidence\u2014providing strategic advice, regulatory insight, and market intelligence to maximise value from sustainability initiatives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reach out to our team if you\u2019d like a deeper conversation about how VEEC trends affect your energy strategy and consider hedging VEEC projects you have underway.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For more information about Solar VEECs and LGCs contact:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"mailto: m.ghajar@northmoregordon.com\">Madonna Ghajar<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Insight from Northmore Gordon&nbsp; At Northmore Gordon, we continue to monitor the dynamic Victorian Energy Efficiency Certificate (VEEC) market.&nbsp; Two weeks ago, the Government passed legislation to extend the VEU to 2045, and last Friday 16th May, they announced the 2026 and 2027 targets.&nbsp; Latest Price Movements&nbsp; As of 19 May 2025, VEEC spot prices&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30884,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[17,50,67],"class_list":["post-30883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-energy-efficiency","tag-northmore-gordon","tag-veecs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.3 (Yoast SEO v25.5) - 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