Gas Archives - Northmore Gordon

Getting off gas – the next step in the energy market transformation

Northmore Gordon — Tue, 09 Jun 2020 02:45:35 +0000

Northmore Gordon was recently engaged by Environment Victoria to assess the Victorian gas market supply and demand balance in the next ten years and the role of demand side measures in avoiding any shortfalls.

The eastern Australian gas market has undergone significant transformation in the last five years with six gas trains built in QLD supplying LNG to an export market, and significant growth in gas production in Northern Australia (namely from coal seam gas sources in QLD). Alongside this expansion of QLD gas supply, offshore gas resources in Victoria (Otway, Bass, and Gippsland) that have supplied southern states (SA, Vic, NSW, and Tas) have begun to deplete.

The 2019 Gas Statement of Opportunities prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) highlighted a potential gas supply shortfall to the southern states by 2025. This forecast shortfall was responded to with calls for immediate government action to facilitate new gas production wells and other measures to increase supply. While many voices are calling for additional gas supplies, there has been considerably less attention on the potential for measures that reduce gas demand to serve as a solution to the forecast gas shortfall.

Using data from the 2019 AEMO Gas Sttement of Opportunitities and modelled Victorian gas demand for each sector Northmore Gordon have estimated the annual surplus or shortfall in Victoria until 2030. Forecast production estimates were taken from existing, committed, and anticipated projects, but did not include any available supply from northern regions transported via gas pipeline to Victoria.

Our analysis found that, on an annual basis, there is enough supply capacity in Victoria until 2027, however from 2027 until 2030 there is a shortfall of between 26 PJ and 85 PJ.

The same technology innovation that has led to development and falling prices in wind and solar PV renewable energy, has resulting in a plethora of high efficiency electric alternatives to fossil fuel combustion driven equipment. These include reverse cycle air-conditioners; heat pump hot water systems; induction, microwave, and infrared process heating systems. Households and industry, forced to innovate by unprofitably high gas prices, has recognised the competitive advantage of direct procurement of renewable electricity (e.g. via on-site solar PV and Corporate Power Purchase Agreements) and combining these with efficient electric alternatives to out-dated natural gas combustion systems.

We assessed the potential for readily available electrification technologies and gas efficiency activities to significantly reduce Victorian gas demand and offset the need for new gas field developments. This review was based on existing published literature and previous work by Northmore Gordon for commercial and industrial clients. Measures were selected that were considered generally applicable and achievable in the next 5 to 10 years with current technology and targeted economic support.

Modelling a linear adoption of proposed measures and mapping the resulting gas demand reduction against the forecast supply adequacy we demonstrated that the adoption of measures such as energy efficiency and fuel switching entirely eliminates the forecast shortfall, with the exception of 2028 which had a minor 6.5PJ modelled shortfall.

A detailed review was also conducted of existing and historic government support programs relating to gas usage and energy efficiency. The review investigated the efficacy of current programs in supporting households and businesses to improve energy efficiency and identifying potential pathways for supporting gas demand reduction measures. Building on this review and discussions with industry association representatives, a number of policy drivers were also identified in the study. These included:

• Amendment of Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) activities to remove support for fuel switching from electric to gas

• Introduction of new VEU activities to incentivise replacement of gas hot water systems and gas space heating systems with electric heat pump and reverse cycle air-conditioners.

• Amending the Victorian Building Authority Minimum 6 star energy provisions to include heat pumps as acceptable solar hot water systems

• Establishing a Sustainability Victoria led training program, coupled with VEU support, to engage and educate relevant trades, developers, and building owners on all-electric homes

• Establishment of a new energy efficient business program, similar to the NSW Business Energy Saver Program within the Victorian Department of Environment Water Land and Planning (DEWLP) or the Department of Jobs Precincts and Regions (DJPR).

• Provide Victorian government backing and joint funding to the ARENA renewable process heat program.

Copies of the report can be downloaded from Environment Victoria’s website: https://environmentvictoria.org.au/2020/06/03/a-gas-free-recovery-new-report-shows-how-phasing-out-gas-will-benefit-all-victorians/

For more information about the study or to speak with us about gas market analysis capabilities at Northmore Gordon or get in touch with Trent Hawkins via LinkedIn.

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Creating a gas measurement and monitoring plan for your industrial site

Northmore Gordon — Tue, 09 Jul 2019 04:25:28 +0000

Gas costs are hurting business and have been for some time. Making informed and smart decisions using good data can help reduce operating costs. The measurement and monitoring of energy flows such as gas, steam, hot water, hot air or electricity is needed, however it can be technically challenging and often expensive.

For these reasons, a well-thought-out measurement and monitoring plan is an essential part of any industrial site, and can be achieved using a 5-step process:

Step 1 – Specify the goal and understand what is already known.
Step 2 – Prioritise what to measure.
Step 3 – Investigate and select energy management software and long term data storage
solution.
Step 4 – Specify and select suitable meters and their communication system.
Step 5 – Develop a budget and implementation plan

Step 1 – Specify the goal and understand what is already known.
This is the essential part of a metering and monitoring upgrade as it determines the useful data and how it will be used. Other equally valid goals could be:

“Determine the Coefficient of Performance (COP) of the refrigeration system to assist in developing a business case for its replacement”
“Understand how much one area of the plant costs to run”
“Establish plant energy performance KPIs and track them”

Once the objective is clear, spend time determining what data is available and what additional metering is necessary. In many cases some metering is already in place but unused.

Step 2 – Prioritise what to measure.
Keeping in mind the initial goal, determine the highest priority energy flows that need to be measured. Start by building a preliminary energy balance on either the site, a specific utility, a plant area or an individual piece of equipment. It isn’t necessarily the largest energy users that are the priority.

Step 3 – Investigate and select energy management software and long term data storage solution
Before jumping in to select meters, consider how to collect and store the data, as well as who needs the information. The purpose of metering is to provide data that is usable, and insights are acted upon. Data collection may use a pre-existing data management or SCADA system, or a new online portal.
The range of people needing to access the data might range from plant operators, plant managers, energy managers, or compliance personnel.

Step 4 – Specify and select suitable meters and their communication system.
There are hundreds of different meters available on the market, and all of them have different benefits and drawbacks. Consider things like precision, repeatability, flow range, method of installation and format of the data being reported.

Step 5 – Develop a budget and implementation plan.
The budget and implementation plan of the metering and monitoring project must consider:

Schedule of works to be completed.
Plant down time and commissioning requirements.
Communication and data storage installation.
Safety of the works carried out.
New procedures or responsibilities to utilise the data
Meter validation and ongoing meter maintenance.

Meter validation is often overlooked. To test if the meter is accurate, first compare its data with what is expected, or with other meters up or downstream. At Northmore Gordon we often find meters in the field that have been incorrectly reporting energy usage for years!

Make informed and smart decisions about energy usage.
Acting on the data is what really matters. Software tools exist that are designed to aggregate data from industrial data management systems and present it in a way that is easy to understand. If information is easy to understand, it is more likely to be trusted and acted upon.

Northmore Gordon is passionate about helping large industrial and commercial customers increase energy productivity. We can help you design a metering, monitoring and energy management solution for your specific needs.

For more specific details on gas metering and monitoring, you might want to check out the NSW OEH publication co-authored by Northmore Gordon: “Gas Measurement and Monitoring Guide” or contact me.

Alex Holdsworth
Consultant, Northmore Gordon
a.holdsworth@northmoregordon.com

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